Mixed signals?

Kathryn Cook and I have recently been writing on www.3s4.org.uk (NCVO's futures website) about some of the mixed signals currently coming from the wider economy, and how in turn this is making the funding environment more uncertain than is has been in a number of years. Katherine argued that "Interestingly, as far back as March and April, economists were predicting that the economy would start to recover in September. One week into that month and their words look eerily accurate." But Katherine also argued that we are getting a lot of mixed signals - and for the public sector economy, the impact of the recession is likely to lag beind the 'real' economy. In other words, when the bankers are back on the champagne some of the rest of us may be sipping at the gruel.

In turn, I argued: "you might polarise opionions into two camps: the optimists who believe the recent indicators such as the uptick in the housing market or in industrial production figures, and the pessimists who expect us to hit some quite different big numbers: unemployment of 3 million, which may well be timed with unerring accuracy with a general election, and a government spending deficit of £200 billion for the current financial year. (Incidentally, will anyone actually care if technically we are out of recession when unemployment hits the big 3m?) In other words, is it the beginning of the end or the end of the beginning?

Your own feelings of confidence in the prospects for your organisation will reflect whether you interpret the latest research on our own sector with good or bad feelings: a £1.3billion drop in charitable giving (www.ncvo-vol.org.uk/research/giving) is unarguably a big number, but the optimists amongst you will highlight that this still means the public gave 90p this year for every £1 they gave last year. Amidst what has been argued as the worst recession in post-war history, you may well in fact be feeling that this is a good result. Fundraisers may feel particular pride that their push to convert donors to planned givers has led to greater stability?

Either way, these mixed signals are evident in some of the recent surveys on confidence. NCVO's own Charity Forecast (http://www.ncvo-vol.org.uk/charity-forecast-survey), which I hasten to add is not statistically representative, has suggested that sector leaders are rather pessimistic. In contrast, The Charity Commission's recession survey (http://www.charity-commission.gov.uk/news/prdownturn.asp), which is representative, is much more upbeat. In other words, we are getting some pretty mixed signals from both within and outside the sector.

So, where do you stand?